Seasonal Adjustment - What it is and the 6 adjustment factors

Wednesday Sep 05th, 2018


With real estate statistics, the most common comparison is straight-up year-over-year comparisons of actual numbers (e.g. May 2018 vs. May 2017). TREB has also increasingly been mentioning the Home Price Index ("HPI") and Seasonally Adjusted ("SA") numbers. And people are skeptical of them. I know I was skeptical about them too because they are calculated in a mysterious black box and we don't know what numbers go in there and how they do things. TREB is so biased that... [read more]

Brace yourselves for the big February Bump in prices

Thursday Jan 26th, 2017


What is this February Bump? When compiling my monthly charts highlighting trends in the Toronto real estate market, I always notice the climb from January to February in the last 6 years, which was particularly steep in 2016: From December 2015 to December 2016, the average house price went up by $209K. Nearly 3/4 of that ($152K) happened in that steep January to February climb I just noted. Here is a look at the last 6 years, which correspond to the chart above. You can see... [read more]

More REALTORS® in GTA than outside of Ontario

Wednesday Dec 13th, 2017


Based on the latest TREB membership numbers, we have now surpassed 50,000 REALTORS® working with the Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB). There are only 50,000 Realtors working outside of Ontario in the other 9 provinces and territories put together! The July 1 population of Canada in 2017 was 36.7 million people¹. Currently roaming among us in this fine country are 120,000 Realtors (per Canadian Real Estate Association). The Ontario Real Estate Association... [read more]

HPI charts - September 2017

Thursday Oct 12th, 2017


The MLS Home Price Index (HPI) is supposed to act like the more familiar Consumer Price Index (CPI). While the CPI tracks the price of a basket of goods, the HPI tracks the price of a basket of house attributes. For a more detailed look into how the HPI works, check out this blog post. Similar to the monthly Toronto real estate market charts, the full set of HPI charts (with the charts much larger and more legible) are available as a SlideShare report The HPI isn't... [read more]

Why do Toronto house prices fall in the summer?

Monday Aug 28th, 2017


First of all it's important to know what goes into the price of a home. You may be familiar with MPAC (Municipal Property Assessment Corporation). They're the ones that do your property assessments every four years upon which your municipal property taxes are based. They're responsible for assessing and classifying more than 5 million properties so they know a little about home values. According to MPAC, the following 5 factors account for 85% of the value of a house: Show me... [read more]