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Toronto real estate bubble crash Time Machine

Thursday Nov 4th, 2021

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There is a segment of the population that's rooting for a crash in Toronto housing prices. There are Facebook groups with bubble in their group name, and I often see comments with this angle on real estate Twitter. I get it. Prices are high, and some people that want to buy feel their only hope is if we are actually in a bubble and that bubble bursts. Meanwhile prices keep climbing and climbing and climbing. Now, do I think they're always going to go up? No. Do I think they... [read more]

How many people got burned by the 2017 correction?

Thursday Mar 1st, 2018

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[Note: the analysis from this blog post was referenced in a Globe & Mail article in March of 2018.] The calendar just turned from February to March. That means February real estate statistics will be released next week. And that means we're going to be seeing harsh year-over-year (YoY) price comparisons for the next few months. If you want a fun drinking game, have a shot every time you hear or read the media use any variation on the word "plunge" related to... [read more]

HPI charts - December 2018

Friday Jan 11th, 2019

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The MLS Home Price Index (HPI) is designed to act like the more familiar Consumer Price Index (CPI). While the CPI tracks the price of a basket of goods, the HPI tracks the price of a basket of house attributes. For a more detailed look into how the HPI works, check out this blog post. It's been a long time since I've posted the HPI charts, but with 2018 just ending I thought it would be a good time to share a look-in. Note, I zero-in on just the 416. Different parts of the... [read more]

June 2020 charts: listings on the rise

Thursday Jul 16th, 2020

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Every month recently has been a lot different than the prior. In February things were hot. March was a tale of two halves, with the first half continuing hot, and then the brakes coming on in the second half after all three levels of government started implementing COVID-19 measures. Then April was one long month of riding the brakes, with 2,975 GTA sales representing the lowest April in the last 25 years (as far back as TRREB supplies monthly numbers for). May was the start... [read more]

August 2020 charts: what a weird summer

Friday Sep 11th, 2020

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A real split is developing in the freehold versus condo markets. We've seen them act differently before (which is why I run separate charts), but it's getting pretty extreme now. This year has been such a wild ride. In February things were hot. March was a tale of two halves, with the onset of COVID-19 mesures. Then April was one long month of riding the brakes, followed by the start of recovering in May and June as listings rose (as did sales). And then the... [read more]

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