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Seasonal Adjustment - What it is and the 6 adjustment factors

Wednesday Sep 5th, 2018

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With real estate statistics, the most common comparison is straight-up year-over-year comparisons of actual numbers (e.g. May 2018 vs. May 2017). TREB has also increasingly been mentioning the Home Price Index ("HPI") and Seasonally Adjusted ("SA") numbers. And people are skeptical of them. I know I was skeptical about them too because they are calculated in a mysterious black box and we don't know what numbers go in there and how they do things. TREB is so biased that... [read more]

HPI charts - December 2018

Friday Jan 11th, 2019

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The MLS Home Price Index (HPI) is designed to act like the more familiar Consumer Price Index (CPI). While the CPI tracks the price of a basket of goods, the HPI tracks the price of a basket of house attributes. For a more detailed look into how the HPI works, check out this blog post. It's been a long time since I've posted the HPI charts, but with 2018 just ending I thought it would be a good time to share a look-in. Note, I zero-in on just the 416. Different parts of the... [read more]

3 reasons the rush of new listings in Toronto is overblown

Wednesday May 17th, 2017

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When the Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) released its April 2017 statistics, a lot of media keyed in on the year-over-year (YoY) increase in new listings and how they "soared" or "jumped": Indeed the overall numbers were up. Some commentators were saying that this was indicating a "flood" of listings as people were rushing to sell their homes and cash out of the market before the bubble burst. I have 3 problems with this, which I'll get to below.... [read more]

Toronto Real Estate returns report: 20 years of ROI - Q2 2017

Friday Jul 28th, 2017

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Are you curious how your house or condo has appreciated over time compared to the average in the city? Or how those average price increases look versus the stock market? Well then you came to the right place. This is the third time I've compiled these numbers (following Q4 2016 and Q2 2016). I will excerpt some charts in this blog post, but the full report is available here on this website, or as a SlideShare presentation. Please note... [read more]

Why do Toronto house prices fall in the summer?

Monday Aug 28th, 2017

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First of all it's important to know what goes into the price of a home. You may be familiar with MPAC (Municipal Property Assessment Corporation). They're the ones that do your property assessments every four years upon which your municipal property taxes are based. They're responsible for assessing and classifying more than 5 million properties so they know a little about home values. According to MPAC, the following 5 factors account for 85% of the value of a house: Show me... [read more]

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