May 2020 charts: market begins slow crawl back

Thursday Jun 04th, 2020


Every month recently has been a lot different than the prior. In February things were hot. March was a tale of two halves, with the first half continuing hot, and then the brakes coming on in the second half after all three levels of government started implementing COVID-19 measures. Then April was one long month of riding the brakes, with 2,975 GTA sales representing the lowest April in the last 25 years (as far back as TRREB supplies monthly numbers for). May was a bit of bounceback... [read more]

Seasonal Adjustment - What it is and the 6 adjustment factors

Wednesday Sep 05th, 2018


With real estate statistics, the most common comparison is straight-up year-over-year comparisons of actual numbers (e.g. May 2018 vs. May 2017). TREB has also increasingly been mentioning the Home Price Index ("HPI") and Seasonally Adjusted ("SA") numbers. And people are skeptical of them. I know I was skeptical about them too because they are calculated in a mysterious black box and we don't know what numbers go in there and how they do things. TREB is so biased that... [read more]

Price ratio between Detached and Condos falls to 2013 levels

Thursday Mar 22nd, 2018


Many condo owners purchase with the intent of climbing aboard the "property ladder." The intention isn't usually to buy a condo as a "forever home" but rather to move up to a house once they have accumulated some equity. However, freehold (non-condominium houses) properties have been appreciating at a faster pace than condos over the years and with higher price to begin with, the price gap between the two ownership types has grown over the years. When GTA freehold... [read more]

How many people got burned by the 2017 correction?

Thursday Mar 01st, 2018


[Note: the analysis from this blog post was referenced in a Globe & Mail article in March of 2018.] The calendar just turned from February to March. That means February real estate statistics will be released next week. And that means we're going to be seeing harsh year-over-year (YoY) price comparisons for the next few months. If you want a fun drinking game, have a shot every time you hear or read the media use any variation on the word "plunge" related to... [read more]

Toronto Real Estate returns report: 20 years of ROI - Q4 2017

Friday Jan 12th, 2018


Are you curious how your house or condo has appreciated over time compared to the average in the city? Or how those average price increases look versus the stock market? Well then you came to the right place. I've been compiling this after the June and December market statistics are released. Here's where you can find the posts for Q2 2017, Q4 2016 and Q2 2016. I will show some of the charts in this blog post, but for the full picture, the... [read more]